Danjord, Frank (2009):

Forsvarssjefens forsvarsstudier: hvilken innvirkning har de på departementenes etterfølgende langtidsplaner?

Oslo, Forsvarets høgskole







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19/12 2017

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This thesis deals with the Norwegian system for defence planning. More specifically it is an analysis of the Chief of defence’s (CHOD) quadrennial defence study process and its impact on the following Parliamentary White Paper (or long term plan) for the defence sector issued by the Government. The defence studies are regarded as the main input from the military side to the more political process which involves the issue of the White Paper and the subsequent discussion in the Storting (Parliament). The survey comprises the six CHOD defence studies that have been issued since the first in 1986 and the subsequent six White Papers. The analysis identifies some characteristics of the defence study process and compares the main content of the defence study with the following White Paper. The objective has been to identify key issues that may have an impact on the planning process, and to investigate to what extent the recommendations from the CHOD defence study process is taken into account and transferred into the Parliamentary White Paper. The document studies have been supplemented by interviews with key personnel.

The thesis suggests that the defence studies have had a varying impact on the following White Paper. It is also suggested that the impact has been gradually increasing over time since the first one, and that the impact is depending on the level of integration with other participants in the defence planning process such as the Department of Defence and the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment. Moreover the analysis suggests that the defence studies have little influence on the budget proposals, but may be more important for overall direction setting and conceptual change. Another finding is that the defence studies may be contributing to
underestimation of cost and conservation of the existing defence structure.